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General Market Analysis – S&P 500, Nasdaq, FTSE 100 | Capital Street FX | 25 Feb 2026

February 25, 2026
CSFXadmin
General Market Analysis – S&P 500, Nasdaq, FTSE 100 | Capital Street FX | 25 Feb 2026

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General Market Analysis

📅 Wednesday, 25 February 2026 📈 Equities · Forex · Geopolitics · Macro ⏱ Pre-Market & Overnight Review
Market Overview: Global markets are opening Wednesday with a broadly positive tone after U.S. equities are staging a strong recovery session, led by the technology sector on AI infrastructure optimism. The Nasdaq is gaining over 1% as Meta is reporting plans to invest billions in AI hardware sourced from Advanced Micro Devices, lifting sentiment across the tech complex. Geopolitics is continuing to drive outsized moves — easing U.S.–Iran tensions are triggering notable corrections in oil and safe-haven assets, while the Japanese Yen is seeing sharp moves after Prime Minister Takaichi is expressing concerns over BOJ rate hikes. Attention is now turning to President Trump’s second State of the Union address, which is carrying significant market-moving potential across equities, FX, and commodities.
Dow Jones
49,147
▲ +0.76%
S&P 500
6,890
▲ +0.77%
Nasdaq
22,863
▲ +1.04%
DXY (USD Index)
97.88
▲ +0.19%
2Y Treasury
3.461%
▲ +2.3 bps
10Y Treasury
4.029%
▼ Slightly

US Stocks Rebound on AI Optimism — Nasdaq Gains Over 1%

🤖 Meta–AMD AI Infrastructure Investment 💻 Tech Sector Leading Recovery 📊 Core PCE Above Target — Fed on Hold ⚖️ Tariff Policy Uncertainty — 15% Push 📈 2Y Treasury Yield ▲ +2.3 bps

U.S. equity markets are posting a strong recovery session on Tuesday, led by technology shares. The Dow Jones is climbing 0.76% to 49,147, the S&P 500 is rising 0.77% to 6,890, and the Nasdaq Composite is outperforming with a 1.04% jump to 22,863. Sentiment is improving sharply after reports are emerging that Meta Platforms is planning to invest billions of dollars in AI infrastructure hardware sourced directly from Advanced Micro Devices — a deal that is being interpreted by markets as further evidence that the structural AI capital expenditure cycle is continuing to accelerate, even amid broader macroeconomic uncertainty.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is edging 0.19% higher to 97.88, reflecting a modestly firmer Dollar as Treasury yields are moving in a mixed fashion. The 2-year yield is rising 2.3 basis points to 3.461%, reflecting continued expectations that the Federal Reserve is remaining in a holding pattern on rate cuts, while the 10-year yield is dipping slightly to 4.029% — signaling some demand for longer-duration Treasuries on residual safe-haven interest. Trade policy uncertainty is remaining a central theme, with President Trump’s renewed push for 15% tariffs continuing to inject volatility into equity, FX, and commodity markets.

🌍 Geopolitics — Key Market Drivers Today
US–Iran Tensions Easing: Reports of de-escalation between the U.S. and Iran are triggering significant corrections in WTI and Brent crude prices and are reducing safe-haven demand for Gold and the Japanese Yen. The market is rapidly re-pricing Middle East risk premium following initial nuclear standoff fears that had previously driven Gold above $5,000.
Japanese Yen Volatility: The Yen is seeing notable movement after reports that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is expressing concerns directly to the Bank of Japan about potential near-term rate hikes — a signal that is being interpreted as political resistance to BOJ tightening, weakening the Yen and lifting USD/JPY. Markets are reassessing the pace of BOJ normalisation as a result.
Trump State of the Union Address: President Trump’s second State of the Union address is now the primary event risk on the calendar. The speech is expected to outline further trade and tariff policy intentions, potentially triggering fresh volatility across equities, FX pairs with U.S. trade exposure (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CNY), Gold, and oil.
Europe — HSBC & ECB: European stocks are moving modestly higher, supported by strong corporate earnings with HSBC among key highlights. ECB President Christine Lagarde’s remarks are being closely watched for signals on the rate-cutting trajectory, particularly given Eurozone disinflation progress and the European growth slowdown narrative.

🕐 Session-by-Session Breakdown

🇺🇸 US Session Recap

Tariff Uncertainty & AI-Driven Rebound

Trade policy uncertainty is remaining the dominant theme, with Trump’s renewed 15% tariff push adding volatility across asset classes. Equity markets are experiencing intraday swings but are recovering on AI optimism. Gold is briefly benefiting from safe-haven demand before easing on Iran de-escalation news. Treasuries are seeing renewed interest mid-session. Regional economic data is taking a back seat to policy and geopolitical developments.

🌏 Asia Session Outlook

Sentiment-Driven with Multiple Catalysts

Asian markets are facing a complex, sentiment-driven session. China’s steady Loan Prime Rate is providing no surprise, while Japan’s soft growth backdrop and the PM Takaichi–BOJ rate hike controversy are keeping the Yen under pressure. Australian CPI data is a key domestic catalyst for AUD/USD. Trump’s State of the Union speech is shaping early directional bias across the region, particularly for export-sensitive markets.

🇪🇺 European Session

Modest Gains — Lagarde & Earnings in Focus

European stocks are moving modestly higher on the back of strong corporate earnings, with HSBC being a key highlight driving financials. Investors are closely watching ECB President Lagarde’s remarks for rate guidance, particularly as Eurozone PMI data is signalling uneven recovery. U.S. weekly jobless claims (forecast: 217K) are also due, providing a cross-Atlantic macro read for EUR/USD and European equity direction.

📊 Index Technical Analysis

S&P 500 SPX / US500

The S&P 500 is holding firm as buyers are defending key support — structure is remaining constructive above the 50-day moving average.

💹 Strong Corporate Earnings Beat Rate 🤖 AI Capex Cycle Intact 📊 Above 50-Day Moving Average ⚖️ Tariff Overhang — Sector Rotation 🏦 Fed Rate Cut — Mid-2026 Timeline

The S&P 500 is remaining above its 50-day moving average, preserving a constructive medium-term structure after yesterday’s 0.77% gain to 6,890. Buyers are actively defending the 6,800 support region — a level that is coinciding with the 50-day EMA — and the index is maintaining its broader uptrend despite persistent headwinds from tariff policy uncertainty and a Federal Reserve that is showing no urgency to cut rates. The AI investment narrative is proving to be a powerful catalyst for momentum, with the Meta–AMD deal is reinforcing the view that enterprise technology spending is remaining structurally robust even as the macro environment is creating caution.

⚙ Technical Outlook

The index is remaining above its 50-day moving average, preserving a constructive medium-term structure. Momentum indicators are stabilizing after recent volatility, signalling that the corrective pressure is easing. Immediate resistance is sitting near recent swing highs, and a sustained break above this level could re-open upside continuation. Support is remaining firm around the 6,800 region, with a failure below this level likely inviting a retest of the 50-day EMA near 6,650.

📰 Fundamental Outlook

Strong corporate earnings — particularly from mega-cap AI-linked technology — and the structural AI capital expenditure theme are underpinning sentiment. However, trade policy uncertainty and persistent inflation (PCE remaining above the Fed’s 2% target) are capping more aggressive risk-taking. A Fed rate cut before mid-2026 is appearing increasingly unlikely, which is pressuring rate-sensitive sectors while rewarding cash-generative technology companies.
Resistance Recent Swing Highs (~7,000+)
Support 6,800
50-Day EMA ~6,650
Constructive Above 50-day MA — momentum stabilizing; buyers are defending 6,800 support.

Nasdaq 100 NDX / US100

The Nasdaq 100 is extending its rebound on tech strength — renewed bullish momentum is building above short-term moving averages.

🤖 Meta–AMD AI Deal — Sector Catalyst 💻 Mega-Cap Tech Leadership 📈 RSI Recovering from Neutral 🔋 AI Infrastructure Spending Cycle ⚡ Semiconductor Supply Chain Resilience

The Nasdaq 100 is extending its rebound, outperforming broader indices with a 1.04% gain as technology shares are leading the recovery. The Meta–AMD AI infrastructure investment story is acting as a powerful sector-wide catalyst, lifting semiconductor stocks, cloud computing names, and AI-adjacent software companies broadly. The index is continuing to trade above its short-term moving averages, signaling renewed bullish momentum after a period of elevated volatility driven by tariff uncertainty and AI regulatory concerns.

The RSI is recovering from neutral territory, suggesting that upside traction is improving and that the recent corrective phase is running out of momentum. However, the index is still navigating a complex macro backdrop — tariff policy risks are weighing on hardware companies with significant Asian supply chain exposure, while the Fed’s higher-for-longer stance is creating a discount-rate headwind for high-multiple growth stocks. A move above recent highs would confirm trend continuation and likely trigger algorithmic momentum-buying, while downside support is resting near the 50-day EMA.

⚙ Technical Outlook

The Nasdaq 100 is continuing to trade above short-term moving averages, signaling renewed bullish momentum. RSI is recovering from neutral territory, suggesting improving upside traction. A move above recent highs would confirm trend continuation and potentially accelerate a momentum-driven rally. Downside support is sitting near the 50-day EMA, which is providing a reliable floor during recent pullbacks.

📰 Fundamental Outlook

The AI capital expenditure narrative is remaining the key fundamental driver, with the Meta–AMD deal reinforcing the view that technology infrastructure spending is accelerating rather than decelerating. Semiconductor stocks, cloud providers, and AI-adjacent software are all benefiting. Risks to the upside scenario include a tariff escalation targeting tech hardware imports from Asia and any hawkish surprise from the Fed or State of the Union speech.
Resistance Recent Highs (Breakout Target)
Support 50-Day EMA
RSI Recovering from Neutral
Bullish Momentum AI optimism is driving recovery — above short-term MAs; watch for breakout confirmation.

FTSE 100 UKX / UK100

The FTSE 100 is consolidating amid trade uncertainty — price is holding above key MAs but is remaining below recent peaks with momentum flattening.

🇬🇧 US–UK Tariff Impact 🏦 HSBC Strong Earnings — Financials Bid 💷 GBP/USD Volatility 🛢 Oil Price Correction — Energy Sector 🏦 BOE Dovish Pivot Expectations 🌍 Global Trade Volume Concerns

The FTSE 100 is trading in a consolidation range below recent peaks, with momentum indicators flattening as the index is navigating a complex set of cross-currents. Strong corporate earnings — most notably from HSBC, which is lifting the financials sector — are providing a partial offset to broader trade uncertainty concerns. The index is holding above its key moving averages, keeping the broader trend technically intact, though a lack of decisive directional catalyst is keeping price action contained.

On the negative side, the easing of U.S.–Iran tensions is triggering a correction in crude oil prices, which is weighing on the FTSE’s significant energy sector weighting (BP, Shell). Meanwhile, U.S. tariff policy uncertainty — particularly the risk of further measures targeting UK goods — is creating caution among export-facing industrials and consumer companies. ECB President Lagarde’s remarks and U.S. weekly jobless claims data are both serving as near-term catalysts that could influence the risk appetite feeding into European equities. BOE rate cut expectations are continuing to provide a floor for domestic-oriented names, but global headwinds are preventing a sustained break above resistance.

⚙ Technical Outlook

The FTSE 100 is trading in a consolidation range below recent peaks, with momentum indicators flattening — indicating a lack of near-term directional commitment. The index is holding above its key moving averages, keeping the broader trend technically intact. A breakout above resistance could trigger fresh gains toward new highs, while support is remaining near recent swing lows. Volume is subdued, suggesting the market is waiting for a fresh catalyst before committing to direction.

📰 Fundamental Outlook

HSBC’s strong earnings are providing a financials tailwind, but the oil price correction (Iran de-escalation) is weighing on the energy-heavy index. U.S. tariff uncertainty is creating caution among UK exporters. The BOE’s dovish policy trajectory is supportive for rate-sensitive domestic sectors, but global growth concerns are capping upside. Lagarde’s comments and U.S. jobless claims remain the key near-term data catalysts for European equity direction today.
Resistance Recent Peaks (Above Market)
Support Recent Swing Lows
Momentum Flattening — Neutral
Consolidating Holding above key MAs — awaiting a catalyst; HSBC earnings vs. oil correction are the key tug-of-war.

🗓 Key Events & Data — Today & Ahead

RegionEventForecast / DetailImpact
🇺🇸 US President Trump — State of the Union Address Tariff & trade policy signals key 🔴 Very High
🇪🇺 ECB ECB President Christine Lagarde Speech Rate path & disinflation signals 🔴 High
🇺🇸 US Weekly Jobless Claims Forecast: 217K 🟡 Medium
🇩🇪 EUR Germany IFO Business Climate Leading indicator for EU economy 🟡 Medium
🇦🇺 AUD Australian CPI Data Key for RBA rate expectations 🔴 High (AUD)
🌍 GLOBAL Tariff & Trade Policy Developments US–UK, US–EU ongoing negotiations 🔴 Ongoing

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Frequently Asked Questions — General Market Analysis

Why is the Nasdaq gaining over 1% on AI optimism today?
The Nasdaq is rallying primarily on reports that Meta Platforms is planning a multi-billion dollar investment in AI computing infrastructure sourced from Advanced Micro Devices. This is significant for several reasons: it confirms that the AI capital expenditure cycle is continuing to accelerate, it validates AMD as a credible alternative to Nvidia for enterprise AI workloads, and it signals that major technology platforms are deepening — not reducing — their AI commitments despite broader macro uncertainty. The move is triggering broad buying across semiconductor stocks, cloud computing companies, and AI-adjacent software names, with the Nasdaq 100 outperforming broader indices as a result.
How is the easing of U.S.–Iran tensions affecting markets?
The de-escalation of U.S.–Iran tensions is having a significant “risk-on” effect across multiple asset classes simultaneously. Oil prices are correcting sharply lower as the geopolitical risk premium that had been supporting WTI and Brent crude is unwinding. Gold is also pulling back from recent highs as safe-haven demand eases. The Japanese Yen — typically a safe-haven currency — is weakening further. Simultaneously, global equity markets are benefiting from improved risk appetite. Traders who were holding defensive positions on geopolitical risk are now unwinding those hedges, driving the cross-asset moves seen today.
What could Trump’s State of the Union address mean for markets?
President Trump’s State of the Union address is representing the highest-profile macro event risk of the week. Markets are watching closely for signals on: (1) the scope and timeline of tariff escalation — any indication of broader or deeper tariffs beyond the current 10–15% measures could trigger a selloff in equities and a Dollar rally; (2) fiscal policy intentions including tax cuts or spending plans; (3) any comments on Federal Reserve independence or interest rate expectations; (4) trade deal signals with key partners including the EU, UK, and China. Given the current sensitivity of markets to trade policy headlines, even relatively small signals from the speech could generate outsized moves, particularly in EUR/USD, USD/CNY, and U.S. equity futures.
Why is the Japanese Yen weakening on PM Takaichi’s BOJ comments?
Prime Minister Takaichi’s reported concerns to the Bank of Japan about potential rate hikes are being interpreted by markets as political pressure on the central bank to delay normalisation — effectively pushing back against BOJ Governor Ueda’s relatively hawkish signals. If the political establishment is signalling discomfort with rate hikes, markets are reducing the probability of near-term BOJ tightening, which is removing a key support pillar for the Yen. USD/JPY is responding by moving higher as the interest rate differential between the U.S. (holding rates) and Japan (potentially delaying hikes) is effectively widening in the Dollar’s favour.
Why is the FTSE 100 underperforming US indices?
The FTSE 100 is underperforming U.S. indices for several interconnected reasons. First, its significant energy sector weighting (BP, Shell) is being weighed on by the oil price correction triggered by U.S.–Iran de-escalation, while U.S. tech-heavy indices are benefiting from exactly the opposite dynamic (AI optimism). Second, U.S. tariff risks — particularly the retaliatory measures targeting UK goods — are creating direct headwinds for FTSE-listed exporters. Third, the UK economy is facing a softer growth backdrop relative to the U.S., with the Bank of England maintaining a dovish posture that, while supportive for bond markets, is reflecting underlying growth concerns that are less inspiring for equity bulls.
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Risk Disclaimer: This general market analysis is produced by Capital Street FX for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. Trading CFDs on indices, currencies, commodities, and other instruments carries a high level of risk to your capital and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All analysis is based on information available at the time of publication and is subject to change without notice. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent financial advice if necessary. Capital Street FX does not accept liability for any loss or damage arising from reliance on this material.