RBA, BoE, US Midterms and NFP Collide in One Week as EUR/USD Tests 1.1105 | Technical Analysis – Forex Report | 31 Oct 2026
Forex This Week | 2–6 November 2026
RBA, BoE, US Midterms and NFP Collide in One Week as EUR/USD Tests 1.1105
- Weekly bias
- Event-led, USD range
- Fed December hike odds near 80%; EUR/USD floor at 1.1105
- Expected volatility
- High
- RBA, midterms, BoE and payrolls between 03:30 GMT Tuesday and 13:30 GMT Friday
- Key event
- US payrolls
- Friday 6 Nov, 13:30 GMT
- Key pivot level
- 1.1105
- EUR/USD 2026 low zone; a weekly close below it extends the euro decline
Market Overview
The dollar index finished the week little changed near 101.8 as Treasury yields fell on Thursday and Friday, when a tech-led equity selloff after weak Alphabet, Amazon and Intel results sent investors into bonds. The Fed held at 3.75–4.00% on Wednesday, but Cook and Hammack dissented in favour of a hike and Chair Warsh called the economy strong. The Canadian dollar led the majors after the BoC hiked to 2.50%, while the New Zealand dollar sank after the RBNZ surprised with a hold. The euro touched its lowest since May 2025 on Thursday after the ECB paused, and the BoJ held at 1.25% in a hawkish 8–1 vote.
The coming week is crowded. US clocks go back on Sunday 1 November, so New York releases land one hour later in GMT terms. The RBA decides at 03:30 GMT on Tuesday, when US midterm voting is also under way, and the BoE follows at 12:00 GMT on Thursday. The ISM manufacturing survey lands on Monday at 15:00 GMT, euro area flash CPI on Wednesday at 10:00 GMT, and US and Canadian jobs on Friday at 13:30 GMT. Markets lean towards a 25 bps hike from both the RBA (to 4.85%) and the BoE (to 4.00%), so guidance and vote splits matter more than the moves.
We rank the strongest setups where central-bank direction and chart structure agree, and the weakest where the pair sits mid-channel ahead of a binary event.
Key highlights
- Fed: The Fed held with two hawkish dissents; Q3 GDP grew 3.4% and core PCE rose 3.1% y/y. FXStreet puts December hike odds near 80%, so payrolls are decisive.
- RBA: Money markets price a 79–85% chance of a 25 bps hike to 4.85% after September CPI of 4.3%.
- BoE: A first hike to 4.00% is expected, with a 7–0–2 hike–hold–cut vote split forecast against 3–0–6 last time.
- ECB: Lagarde pointed to a December hike; euro area flash CPI is seen rising to 4.0%.
- Canada: The BoC hiked to 2.50%; the budget (Thursday) and jobs (Friday) are next.
- Midterms: Polymarket odds cited by Newsquawk favour Democrats for the House (94%) and give them 69% for the Senate.
Market Snapshot: Weekly Close, 30 October 2026
USD/JPY US Dollar / Japanese Yen
157.567
+0.761+0.49% week
Range 156.651–158.347
153.63158.90
Sell near 158.10AUD/USD Australian Dollar / US Dollar
0.70318
-0.00044-0.06% week
Range 0.70096–0.70681
0.69000.7175
Buy near 0.6985EUR/USD Euro / US Dollar
1.11574
-0.00457-0.41% week
Range 1.11042–1.12266
1.10001.1383
Sell near 1.1220GBP/USD British Pound / US Dollar
1.33869
+0.00161+0.12% week
Range 1.32724–1.34339
1.31501.3600
Buy near 1.3300USD/CAD US Dollar / Canadian Dollar
1.39741
-0.00321-0.23% week
Range 1.39418–1.40686
1.38811.4290
Sell near 1.4030USD/CHF US Dollar / Swiss Franc
0.82495
+0.00004+0.00% week
Range 0.81933–0.83132
0.81480.8395
Buy near 0.8200- Dollar index
- 101.8
- Little changed on the week as yields fell
- US 10-year yield
- Below 5.00%
- Fell more than 1% on Thursday
- Fed December hike odds
- ~80%
- Per FXStreet; payrolls decide
- Euro area HICP (Sep)
- 3.8%
- Highest since September 2023; October flash due Wednesday
Trade Setups for the Week
| Pair | Direction | Entry | Stop | Target 1 | Target 2 | Reward:risk | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD | Short | 1.4030 | 1.4100 | 1.3948 | 1.3881 | 1.2 / 2.1 | Medium |
| USD/JPY | Short | 158.10 | 159.00 | 156.65 | 155.00 | 1.6 / 3.4 | Medium |
| EUR/USD | Short | 1.1220 | 1.1275 | 1.1105 | 1.1000 | 2.1 / 4.0 | Medium |
| AUD/USD | Long | 0.6985 | 0.6920 | 0.7068 | 0.7175 | 1.3 / 2.9 | Medium |
| USD/CHF | Long | 0.8200 | 0.8140 | 0.8313 | 0.8395 | 1.9 / 3.3 | Medium |
| GBP/USD | Long | 1.3300 | 1.3225 | 1.3409 | 1.3560 | 1.5 / 3.5 | Low |
Reward:risk is the distance from entry to target 1 and target 2, divided by the distance from entry to the stop. Levels are conditional technical references, not recommendations.
Key Market Drivers
Payrolls decide whether the Fed hikes in December
The Fed held at 3.75–4.00% with Cook and Hammack dissenting for a hike, and Warsh called growth strong after Q3 GDP of 3.4%. Consensus for October payrolls is roughly +55k to +63k with unemployment at 4.2% and earnings up 0.3% on the month. A beat would seal December pricing; a miss would let yields keep falling.
Key events: Monday 2 November, ISM manufacturing at 15:00 GMT; Wednesday 4 November, ISM services at 15:00 GMT; Friday 6 November, payrolls at 13:30 GMT.
The RBA and BoE are the live rate decisions
The RBA is expected to lift the cash rate to 4.85% after hotter inflation, and the BoE to 4.00% in its first hike of the cycle. With both largely priced, statements, forecasts and the BoE vote split will steer AUD/USD and GBP/USD. The RBNZ’s surprise hold shows the risk of a disappointment.
Key events: Tuesday 3 November, RBA at 03:30 GMT; Thursday 5 November, BoE at 12:00 GMT and Bailey at 12:30 GMT.
Inflation and French stress weigh on the euro
Euro area inflation is expected to rise to 4.0% in the October flash, which keeps a December ECB hike in play. Against that, French GDP shrank 0.1%, Fitch cut its outlook to negative and ECB staff estimates show higher yields cutting growth. The mix has pushed EUR/USD to its lowest since May 2025.
Key events: Wednesday 4 November, flash CPI at 10:00 GMT; Thursday 5 November, Lagarde at 18:00 GMT; Friday 6 November, retail sales at 10:00 GMT.
Midterms, refunding and Canada’s budget add event risk
Voters decide control of Congress on Tuesday, with the Treasury’s quarterly refunding on Wednesday shaping long-end yields. In Canada, the budget on Thursday and a jobs report on Friday follow the BoC hike. The yen has also drawn support from the BoJ’s hawkish hold, though Tokyo CPI undershot.
Key events: Tuesday 3 November, US elections; Thursday 5 November, Canada budget at 21:00 GMT; Friday 6 November, Canada jobs at 13:30 GMT and Ueda at 16:00 GMT.
EUR/USD at 1.1105 and USD/JPY at 158.09 mark the two lines most exposed to a payrolls surprise. A weekly close beyond either would change the picture for the dollar.
NFP Scenario Analysis
Consensus is for payrolls of about +55k to +63k, unemployment at 4.2% and average hourly earnings up 0.3% on the month. The report is due on Friday 6 November at 13:30 GMT, the same minute as Canada’s jobs data.
Strong payrolls: a beat with firm earnings seals December
Higher yield expectations lift the dollar across the board.
- USD/JPY158.35, then 158.90
- AUD/USD0.6976, then 0.6900
- EUR/USD1.1105, then 1.1000
- GBP/USD1.3263, then 1.3150
- USD/CAD1.4039, then 1.4069
- USD/CHF0.8313, then 0.8395
Weak payrolls: a miss reopens the December debate
Lower yield expectations extend the dollar’s late-week softness.
- USD/JPY156.65, then 155.00
- AUD/USD0.7038, then 0.7068
- EUR/USD1.1220, then 1.1383
- GBP/USD1.3409, then 1.3560
- USD/CAD1.3948, then 1.3881
- USD/CHF0.8185, then 0.8148
USD/JPY | US Dollar / Japanese Yen
USD/JPY Outlook: Yen Capped Beneath the 158.09 Average as the Triangle Nears Its Apex
157.567 +0.761 (+0.49%) week Range 156.651–158.347
Outlook: Bias is lower while 158.09 caps rallies. The pair rebounded 0.49% from 156.65 but stalled under the 158.09 and 158.90 averages, where the falling line from the July peak meets the rising channel floor. The BoJ’s hawkish hold supports the yen, while a US 10-year yield just under 5% and December Fed hike odds near 80% limit the downside. The zone to work from is 158.00–158.30.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 153.63
- Support 1
- 156.65
- Resistance 1
- 158.09
- Resistance 2
- 158.90
Weekly chart structure
- Structure: a falling line from the July peak near 164 and a rising line from spring 2025 are converging, so a breakout is close.
- Averages: 158.897 and 158.093 sit above price, while 153.630 below aligns with the rising trendline.
- Candle: bullish, opened 156.980, ranged 156.651–158.347 and closed 0.49% higher, but below the upper averages.
- Momentum: RSI 48.56 is above its 47.54 signal line yet still under 50.
Key technical levels
158.09 and 158.90 form the resistance band; a weekly close above 158.90 would break the falling line and reopen the July high. The week’s low at 156.65 is first support, and a close beneath it exposes the 153.63 average and the rising trendline.
Fundamental drivers
BoJ guidance
The BoJ held at 1.25% in an 8–1 vote, with Takata dissenting for a hike, and said it is open to raising rates every few months. Ueda added that underlying inflation had reached 2% but declined to set a timetable. Tokyo CPI of 2.8% missed the 3.3% forecast, so December is live but not locked. Ueda speaks again on Friday at 16:00 GMT.
US yields and payrolls
A strong payroll print would lift Treasury yields and carry the pair toward 158.90, while a weak one would pull it to 156.65. Japan is closed on Tuesday for Culture Day, so liquidity is thinner during the RBA and midterm headlines.
USD/JPY trade setup
ShortMedium conviction- Entry
- 158.10
- Stop loss
- 159.00
- Target 1
- 156.65
- Target 2
- 155.00
Risk 90 pips. Reward:risk 1.6 to target 1, 3.4 to target 2.
Rationale: Two overhead averages, a falling trendline and a hawkish BoJ favour selling rallies; the 158.09–158.90 band defines the risk.
Invalidation: A daily close above 159.00. A strong payroll print that lifts the 10-year yield above 5% is the main risk.
AUD/USD | Australian Dollar / US Dollar
AUD/USD Outlook: Aussie Defends the Trendline Ahead of an RBA Hike to 4.85%
0.70318 -0.00044 (-0.06%) week Range 0.70096–0.70681
Outlook: Bias is higher while 0.6976 holds. The pair slipped 0.06% but defended the rising trendline and closed on the 0.7038 average. A 25 bps RBA hike is priced at roughly 79–85%, so the guidance rather than the move decides direction. Pullbacks to 0.6976–0.6990 are the zone to work from, and a close above 0.7068 would open the 0.7175 swing high.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 0.6900
- Support 1
- 0.6976
- Resistance 1
- 0.7038
- Resistance 2
- 0.7175
Weekly chart structure
- Structure: a rising trendline from late 2025 and a falling upper line from the recent high form a narrowing triangle.
- Averages: 0.70382 and 0.69756 bracket price, while 0.66945 sits well below.
- Candle: near-doji, opened 0.70330, ranged 0.70096–0.70681 and closed 0.06% lower.
- Momentum: RSI 50.33 sits under its 54.06 signal line, so momentum is neutral.
Key technical levels
0.6976 is where the average meets the trendline; a weekly close below it exposes 0.6900. 0.7038 and 0.7068 are the first barriers, and a weekly close above 0.7068 clears the falling line and points to 0.7175.
Fundamental drivers
RBA decision
Markets price a 25 bps hike to 4.85% at 03:30 GMT on Tuesday after September CPI rose to 4.3% and the quarterly trimmed mean hit 3.7%. Governor Bullock sounded softer in September, so any hint that this hike is enough would cap the Aussie. The press conference follows at 04:30 GMT.
Regional spillover
The RBNZ’s surprise hold on 28 October sank NZD/USD, a reminder that priced-in hikes can disappoint. A tech-led risk-off tone or a hot payroll print would weigh on the pair.
AUD/USD trade setup
LongMedium conviction- Entry
- 0.6985
- Stop loss
- 0.6920
- Target 1
- 0.7068
- Target 2
- 0.7175
Risk 65 pips. Reward:risk 1.3 to target 1, 2.9 to target 2.
Rationale: Trendline support, a hawkish RBA bias and a weaker-dollar scenario on soft payrolls favour buying dips; the 0.6900 trendline defines the risk.
Invalidation: A daily close below 0.6920. A dovish RBA statement or a hot payroll print is the main risk.
EUR/USD | Euro / US Dollar
EUR/USD Outlook: Euro Sinks to a Fresh 2026 Low Near 1.1105 Before Flash CPI
1.11574 -0.00457 (-0.41%) week Range 1.11042–1.12266
Outlook: Bias is lower while 1.1220 caps rallies. The pair fell 0.41% and hit 1.1104, its lowest since May 2025, closing beneath every average on the chart. The ECB’s October pause, with a December hike flagged, gave only a brief lift. RSI near 34 warns of a short-covering bounce, so sell rallies rather than chase. The zone to work from is 1.1200–1.1220.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 1.1000
- Support 1
- 1.1104
- Resistance 1
- 1.1220
- Resistance 2
- 1.1383
Weekly chart structure
- Structure: a falling channel since January; price sits close to its lower boundary.
- Averages: 1.15739, 1.14268 and 1.13832 all sit above price.
- Candle: bearish, opened 1.12205, ranged 1.11042–1.12266 and closed 0.41% lower.
- Momentum: RSI 33.77 sits under its 44.41 signal line, close to oversold.
Key technical levels
1.1104 is first support and sits on the 2026 low zone of 1.1105–1.1113; a weekly close below it opens 1.1000. 1.1220, the week’s open, is first resistance, with 1.1383 the average above it.
Fundamental drivers
ECB path
Lagarde said a debate on hiking took place in October, and Reuters sources point to a December hike followed by a pause. ECB staff estimates show higher bond yields trimming growth by 100 bps cumulatively in 2027–28. Lagarde speaks again on Thursday at 18:00 GMT.
Inflation and France
Euro area flash CPI is due Wednesday at 10:00 GMT, expected at 4.0% (prev. 3.8%) with core at 2.5%. Third-quarter GDP beat at 0.4%, but French GDP slipped 0.1% and Fitch cut its outlook to negative.
EUR/USD trade setup
ShortMedium conviction- Entry
- 1.1220
- Stop loss
- 1.1275
- Target 1
- 1.1105
- Target 2
- 1.1000
Risk 55 pips. Reward:risk 2.1 to target 1, 4.0 to target 2.
Rationale: A break below every average, French stress and a firm Fed outlook favour selling rallies; the 1.1220–1.1275 band defines the risk.
Invalidation: A daily close above 1.1275. A weak payroll print that drags Treasury yields lower is the main risk.
GBP/USD | British Pound / US Dollar
GBP/USD Outlook: Sterling Sits on the 1.3390 Average Into the BoE’s First Hike
1.33869 +0.00161 (+0.12%) week Range 1.32724–1.34339
Outlook: Bias is neutral to higher while 1.3263 holds. The pair gained 0.12% and closed on the 1.3390 and 1.3409 averages in the middle of its falling channel, helped by a budget that eased fiscal fears. A 25 bps hike to 4.00% is expected, so the vote split and guidance decide. Dips toward 1.3280–1.3300 are the zone to work from.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 1.3150
- Support 1
- 1.3263
- Resistance 1
- 1.3409
- Resistance 2
- 1.3600
Weekly chart structure
- Structure: a falling channel since January; price sits mid-channel after rebounding from the lower half.
- Averages: 1.34085 and 1.33897 are at or above price, while 1.32630 sits below.
- Candle: bullish, opened 1.33658, ranged 1.32724–1.34339 and closed 0.12% higher.
- Momentum: RSI 50.10 sits just above its 49.79 signal line, so momentum is neutral.
Key technical levels
1.3409 is the cap; a weekly close above it opens 1.3560 and 1.3600. 1.3263 is where the lower average meets the week’s low, and a close beneath it exposes 1.3150.
Fundamental drivers
BoE decision
Consensus is 4.00% from 3.75% at 12:00 GMT on Thursday, with a hike–hold–cut vote split of 7–0–2 against 3–0–6 last time. A split short of that, or cautious guidance on the path, would weigh on sterling. Bailey speaks at 12:30 GMT.
Budget and politics
The Autumn Budget left headroom of £14.5bn, in line with consensus, and gilts reacted positively. Early-election speculation and the 2027 spending review remain risks.
GBP/USD trade setup
LongLow conviction- Entry
- 1.3300
- Stop loss
- 1.3225
- Target 1
- 1.3409
- Target 2
- 1.3560
Risk 75 pips. Reward:risk 1.5 to target 1, 3.5 to target 2.
Rationale: Hike support, budget relief and the rising 1.3263 average favour buying dips, but the pair is mid-channel so conviction is low.
Invalidation: A daily close below 1.3225. A BoE vote split that undershoots expectations is the main risk.
USD/CAD | US Dollar / Canadian Dollar
USD/CAD Outlook: Loonie Firms After the BoC Hike as Budget and Jobs Data Loom
1.39741 -0.00321 (-0.23%) week Range 1.39418–1.40686
Outlook: Bias is lower while 1.4039 caps rallies. The pair fell 0.23% after the BoC raised rates to 2.50% and now sits between the 1.4039 and 1.3948 averages. Canada’s budget lands on Thursday at 21:00 GMT, and Canadian and US jobs reports arrive together on Friday at 13:30 GMT. The zone to work from is 1.4020–1.4040.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 1.3881
- Support 1
- 1.3948
- Resistance 1
- 1.4039
- Resistance 2
- 1.4290
Weekly chart structure
- Structure: a rising wedge since early 2026, with the upper line near 1.4290 and the lower line near 1.385–1.39.
- Averages: 1.40391, 1.39483 and 1.38809 cluster around price.
- Candle: bearish, opened 1.40448, ranged 1.39418–1.40686 and closed 0.23% lower.
- Momentum: RSI 52.76 sits above its 49.60 signal line, close to neutral.
Key technical levels
1.4039 is first resistance; a weekly close above 1.4069 would revive the wedge top near 1.4290. 1.3948 and 1.3881 are stacked support, and a close below 1.3881 would break the wedge floor.
Fundamental drivers
BoC guidance
The BoC raised 25 bps to 2.50% and said further hikes may be needed while proceeding carefully; markets price about 13 bps more by year-end. Governor Macklem speaks on Tuesday at 16:00 GMT and Thursday at 15:30 GMT.
Budget, jobs and tariffs
Canada lost 68k jobs in September; Friday’s consensus is +14.5k with unemployment at 6.5%, released with US payrolls. A WSJ report that Trump may remove some Canada tariffs pushed USD/CAD down 0.2%.
USD/CAD trade setup
ShortMedium conviction- Entry
- 1.4030
- Stop loss
- 1.4100
- Target 1
- 1.3948
- Target 2
- 1.3881
Risk 70 pips. Reward:risk 1.2 to target 1, 2.1 to target 2.
Rationale: BoC tightening, a further-hike bias and tariff-relief headlines favour selling rallies into the 1.4039 average; the stop sits above the 1.4069 week high.
Invalidation: A daily close above 1.4100. A weak Canadian jobs print alongside strong US payrolls is the main risk.
USD/CHF | US Dollar / Swiss Franc
USD/CHF Outlook: Pair Holds Its Rising Channel Above the 0.8185 Average
0.82495 +0.00004 (+0.00%) week Range 0.81933–0.83132
Outlook: Bias is higher while 0.8185 holds. The pair closed flat at 0.82495 after a 0.8313 high, above the 0.81847 and 0.81477 averages inside a rising channel from the January low. The SNB has little reason to tighten with Q4 inflation seen at 1.2%, so dollar direction decides. Dips into 0.8190–0.8210 are the zone to work from.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 0.8148
- Support 1
- 0.8185
- Resistance 1
- 0.8313
- Resistance 2
- 0.8395
Weekly chart structure
- Structure: a rising channel since the January 2026 low; price sits mid-channel with the upper edge near 0.848.
- Averages: 0.81847 and 0.81477 sit below price, with 0.79855 further down.
- Candle: doji, opened 0.82291, ranged 0.81933–0.83132 and closed unchanged, with a long upper wick showing sellers near 0.8313.
- Momentum: RSI 61.04 sits above its 59.41 signal line, a firm but not stretched reading.
Key technical levels
0.8185 is first support; a weekly close below it exposes 0.8148 and the channel floor. 0.8313, the week’s high, is first resistance, with 0.8395 the swing high above.
Fundamental drivers
SNB and Swiss data
Swiss CPI is due Tuesday at 07:30 GMT, expected flat month on month. The SNB sees Q4 inflation at 1.2% against 0.7% in Q3, still inside 0–2%, so tightening calls stay muted. Schlegel speaks on Thursday at 12:40 GMT.
Risk tone and yields
Tech-led selling and Iran-war headlines can lift haven demand for the franc. USD/CHF has followed Treasury yields, so Friday’s payrolls are the main driver.
USD/CHF trade setup
LongMedium conviction- Entry
- 0.8200
- Stop loss
- 0.8140
- Target 1
- 0.8313
- Target 2
- 0.8395
Risk 60 pips. Reward:risk 1.9 to target 1, 3.3 to target 2.
Rationale: The rising channel, averages below price and a Fed leaning towards a December hike favour buying dips; the 0.8140 channel floor defines the risk.
Invalidation: A daily close below 0.8140. Risk-off franc demand or weak payrolls is the main risk.
Economic Calendar: 2–6 November 2026
| Date | Event | Market | Impact | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:00 GMT | US ISM Manufacturing PMI (October), forecast 54.7 | USD pairs | Medium | Prices-paid and employment details feed December Fed pricing |
| All day | US midterm elections | All USD pairs | High | Control of Congress; divided government would raise budget and borrowing questions |
| 03:30 GMT | RBA rate decision and Statement on Monetary Policy, hike to 4.85% expected; press conference 04:30 GMT | AUD/USD | High | Guidance after 4.3% CPI; 0.6976 support, 0.7038 resistance |
| 07:30 GMT | Swiss CPI (October), month on month, forecast 0.0% | USD/CHF | Medium | Energy-led pressure inside the SNB target range |
| 15:00 GMT | US JOLTS job openings (September), forecast 7.11 million | USD pairs | Medium | Labour-demand read ahead of payrolls |
| 16:00 GMT | BoC Governor Macklem speaks | USD/CAD | Medium | Follow-up to the October hike; 1.4039 resistance |
| 10:00 GMT | Euro area flash CPI (October), headline forecast 4.0%, core 2.5% | EUR/USD | High | A rise to 4.0% keeps a December ECB hike in view; 1.1105 in play |
| 13:15 GMT | US ADP employment (October) | USD pairs | Medium | Early read on Friday’s payrolls |
| 13:30 GMT (approx.) | US Treasury quarterly refunding announcement | USD pairs | Medium | Auction-size guidance and buybacks steer long-end yields |
| 15:00 GMT | US ISM Services PMI (October), forecast 54.9 | USD pairs | Medium | Prices-paid component matters for the Fed |
| 12:00 GMT | BoE rate decision and Monetary Policy Report, hike to 4.00% expected; vote split forecast 7–0–2 | GBP/USD | High | Vote split and path guidance; 1.3409 resistance, 1.3263 support |
| 12:30 GMT | BoE Governor Bailey speaks | GBP/USD | Medium | Press conference tone on further tightening |
| 12:40 GMT | SNB Chairman Schlegel speaks | USD/CHF | Medium | Little appetite to tighten while inflation is within the target range |
| 15:30 GMT | BoC Governor Macklem speaks | USD/CAD | Medium | Hints on the pace of further hikes |
| 18:00 GMT | ECB President Lagarde speaks | EUR/USD | Medium | December hike signal in focus |
| 21:00 GMT | Canada federal budget | USD/CAD | Medium | Spending and borrowing assumptions ahead of Friday’s jobs report |
| 13:30 GMT | US nonfarm payrolls (October), forecast +55k to +63k; unemployment 4.2%; earnings 0.3% | All USD pairs | High | Decides December Fed hike pricing |
| 13:30 GMT | Canada employment (October), forecast +14.5k; unemployment 6.5% | USD/CAD | High | Released with US payrolls; expect a sharp first move |
| 15:00 GMT | University of Michigan sentiment, preliminary November, forecast 47.8 | USD pairs | Low | Inflation expectations last at 4.7% |
| 16:00 GMT | BoJ Governor Ueda speaks | USD/JPY | Medium | Tone on a December hike; 158.09 caps, 156.65 supports |
All times are GMT. US clocks change on Sunday 1 November, so New York releases move one hour later in GMT terms.
Conclusion
Central banks and politics set the theme. The RBA and BoE are expected to hike, the midterms add policy uncertainty, and Friday’s payrolls decide whether the Fed follows in December. A strong print would test the dollar’s late-week softness, while a weak one would extend it.
On conviction, EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD, AUD/USD and USD/CHF rate medium, with GBP/USD last because the pair sits mid-channel and the vote split can cut either way.
We treat every level as conditional, let the event windows pass before adding exposure and size positions so that a stop-out is affordable. Spreads can widen sharply around the RBA, BoE and payroll releases.
| Pair | Bias | Key level | Targets | Invalidation | Principal risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | Sell near 158.10 | 158.09 | 156.65 / 155.00 | Above 159.00 | Strong payrolls, yields above 5% |
| AUD/USD | Buy near 0.6985 | 0.6976 | 0.7068 / 0.7175 | Below 0.6920 | Hawkish RBA fades, hot payrolls |
| EUR/USD | Sell near 1.1220 | 1.1105 | 1.1105 / 1.1000 | Above 1.1275 | Short covering from oversold |
| GBP/USD | Buy near 1.3300 | 1.3263 | 1.3409 / 1.3560 | Below 1.3225 | Hawkish BoE disappointment |
| USD/CAD | Sell near 1.4030 | 1.4039 | 1.3948 / 1.3881 | Above 1.4100 | Weak Canada jobs, strong NFP |
| USD/CHF | Buy near 0.8200 | 0.8185 | 0.8313 / 0.8395 | Below 0.8140 | Risk-off franc demand |
Trade EUR/USD, USD/JPY and other forex with Capital Street FX.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which central banks decide this week?
The RBA decides at 03:30 GMT on Tuesday and the BoE at 12:00 GMT on Thursday, with Norges Bank, the Riksbank and others also meeting. Markets expect 25 bps hikes from the RBA and the BoE, so guidance and the BoE vote split carry most of the impact.
When are the US jobs figures and why do they matter?
Nonfarm payrolls are due on Friday 6 November at 13:30 GMT. With December Fed hike odds near 80%, a strong print and firm earnings would seal the move, while a weak one would reopen the debate and pull yields lower.
Why has the euro weakened to its lowest since May 2025?
French fiscal and growth stress, energy-driven inflation and the ECB’s hesitation to hike in October have weighed on it. Flash CPI on Wednesday and Lagarde’s speech on Thursday are the next tests.
How could the US midterm elections affect forex?
Markets tend to react to the fiscal read-across more than to the partisan result. A divided Congress would complicate tax and spending plans and could move Treasury yields and the dollar.
How can traders manage risk in an event-heavy week?
Reduce size before announcements, avoid new entries in the minutes around a release and allow for wider spreads. Use defined stops rather than adding exposure after an initial spike.
