Dollar Firms as the Fed Meets, EUR/USD Slips to 1.1167, NZD/USD Holds Near 0.5690 Before the RBNZ and USD/CAD Sits on 1.4018 | Technical Analysis – Forex Report | 27 Oct 2026
Forex Today | Tuesday 27 October 2026
Dollar Firms as the Fed Meets, EUR/USD Slips to 1.1167, NZD/USD Holds Near 0.5690 Before the RBNZ and USD/CAD Sits on 1.4018
Market Overview
The dollar firmed in Asian trade on Tuesday as the Fed’s two-day meeting began and five central banks decide this week. At about 05:44 GMT, EUR/USD was 1.1167 (−0.06%), AUD/USD 0.7019 (+0.04%), NZD/USD 0.5692 (+0.18%), USD/CAD 1.4018 (+0.04%), USD/CHF 0.8279 (+0.04%) and GBP/CHF 1.1037 (−0.05%). The dollar index is near 102.0, the US 10-year yield about 5.0% and WTI oil around $100. A Fed hold on Wednesday is about 90% priced, with a December hike still expected. The RBNZ, Bank of Canada and Australian CPI land first on Wednesday, and we read today as a dollar-bid session inside broader ranges.
Key highlights
- NZD/USD: Price is 0.5692 under the 0.5749 and 0.5770 averages; the RBNZ hike is largely priced.
- AUD/USD: Price is 0.7019 at the falling roof and the 0.7072 average; Q3 CPI at 00:30 GMT Wednesday decides the next leg.
- EUR/USD: Price is 1.1167 inside a falling channel under the 1.1215 short average; RSI 34.03 is near oversold.
- GBP/CHF: Price is 1.1037 above the channel floor and the 1.1014 short average; the UK Budget on 28 October is the risk.
- USD/CAD: Price is 1.4018 on the long averages with RSI 39.52; the BoC hike is the test.
- USD/CHF: Price is 0.8279 at the 0.8290 short average, with 0.8201 the key support.
What’s Moving Forex Today
Dollar index holds near 102.0 as the two-day FOMC meeting opens
The dollar index closed Monday up about 0.2% at 102.00 and sits near 102.05 on Tuesday as traders position for the Fed. The decision is due Wednesday at 18:00 GMT, a hold at 3.75%–4.00% is about 90% priced, and a December hike is still seen as likely after September’s increase. The US 10-year yield is near 5.0% and WTI oil is around $100 as Iran holds regional talks, with Chair Warsh’s press conference the focus.
EUR/USD slips under 1.1200 for the first time since 14 October
The pair closed Monday at 1.1174 and trades near 1.1167. Moody’s affirming France at Aa3 eased bond stress, but a firmer dollar and a hawkish Fed outweigh it, and the ECB is expected to hold on Thursday at 13:15 GMT.
USD/CAD steadies near 1.4020 as the Bank of Canada is expected to hike to 2.50%
USD/CAD snapped a seven-day losing streak on Monday after touching 1.3969, its weakest since 16 September. Markets expect a 25 basis point BoC hike on Wednesday at 13:45 GMT, with a firm dollar and lower oil the only offsets before the Fed.
AUD/USD holds above 0.7000 as RBA hike bets build before Q3 CPI
RBA Assistant Governor Hunter said inflation is not yet under control, and markets price about a 66% chance of a hike to 4.85% on 3 November. Q3 CPI is released at 00:30 GMT on Wednesday, and positioning data show record short exposure to the Aussie.
NZD/USD stays near 0.5690 as the RBNZ is priced to hike to 3.00% on Wednesday
Swaps price about 80% odds of the hike, and TD Securities now expects three hikes to 3.50%. The Kiwi still slipped on Monday as traders bought dollars before the Fed, and Q3 CPI at 3.7% a year was softer than expected.
GBP/CHF holds near 1.1040 before the UK Budget on 28 October
Sterling is near a 16-month high against the euro as markets price up to four Bank of England hikes by July 2027. The UK Budget on 28 October and the BoE decision on 5 November are the next tests, and EUR/CHF near 0.9246 shows the franc is not under heavy pressure.
USD/CHF edges up to 0.8280 as dollar strength offsets lower Swiss yields
The pair has gained for two days into the Fed. The Swiss 10-year yield fell to about 0.47% on safe-haven flows, which keeps the franc supported and the pair inside its channel.
Key Drivers Ahead
Eight events that set direction for NZD/USD, AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/CHF, USD/CAD and USD/CHF. All times are GMT.
- Iran talks / oil
- Ongoing
- Any time
- Regional talks in Tehran and oil near $100 move the dollar and CAD
- US data and Fed day 1
- Today
- Tue 27 Oct, 12:30 and 14:00 GMT
- Durable goods at 12:30; consumer confidence at 14:00 (usual time)
- Australian Q3 CPI
- 28 Oct
- Wed 28 Oct, 00:30 GMT
- Sets the tone for the 3 November RBA hike
- RBNZ decision
- 28 Oct
- Wed 28 Oct, about 01:00 GMT
- Hike to 3.00% about 80% priced; guidance on the path matters
- Bank of Canada decision
- 28 Oct
- Wed 28 Oct, 13:45 GMT
- Hike to 2.50% expected; new projections published
- FOMC decision
- 28 Oct
- Wed 28 Oct, 18:00 GMT
- Hold expected; December hike odds and Warsh’s tone are key
- ECB decision
- 29 Oct
- Thu 29 Oct, 13:15 GMT
- Hold expected; French bond stress in focus
- US Q3 GDP and PCE
- 29 Oct
- Thu 29 Oct, 12:30 GMT
- Growth and inflation data feed December Fed pricing
Swipe the strip to see every driver.
Trade Setups for Today
Ranked in the order NZD/USD, AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/CHF, USD/CAD and USD/CHF, valid for today’s session. A 1-hour close beyond the stop cancels the idea.
| Instrument | Direction | Entry | Stop | Target 1 | Target 2 | Reward:risk | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NZD/USD | Long | 0.5640 | 0.5590 | 0.5749 | 0.5770 | 2.2 / 2.6 | Medium |
| AUD/USD | Short | 0.7070 | 0.7120 | 0.6980 | 0.6905 | 1.8 / 3.3 | Low |
| EUR/USD | Short | 1.1215 | 1.1275 | 1.1113 | 1.1000 | 1.7 / 3.6 | Medium |
| GBP/CHF | Long | 1.1015 | 1.0955 | 1.1100 | 1.1200 | 1.4 / 3.1 | Medium |
| USD/CAD | Short | 1.4050 | 1.4110 | 1.3970 | 1.3860 | 1.3 / 3.2 | Medium |
| USD/CHF | Long | 0.8205 | 0.8145 | 0.8290 | 0.8390 | 1.4 / 3.1 | Medium |
Reward:risk is the distance from entry to each target divided by the distance from entry to the stop. Prices are the daily-chart prices at about 05:44 GMT on 27 October; every entry sits away from the current price and needs a pullback or a bounce to trigger. Levels are conditional technical references, not recommendations.
Risk Scenario Analysis
The Fed at 18:00 GMT on 28 October, the Bank of Canada at 13:45 GMT and the RBNZ near 01:00 GMT are the swing factors.
Hawkish Fed and higher oil: firmer yields, a stronger dollar and safe-haven franc demand
A message confirming a December hike would lift yields and the dollar, pushing the euro, Aussie and Kiwi to their lower supports.
- NZD/USD0.5638, then 0.5565
- AUD/USD0.6979, then 0.6905
- EUR/USD1.1113, then 1.1000
- GBP/CHF1.0987, then 1.0903
- USD/CAD1.4046, then 1.4162
- USD/CHF0.8290, then 0.8390
Dovish hold and lower oil: softer yields, a weaker dollar and a relief rally in risk currencies
A cautious Fed and falling oil would pull yields lower and let the majors recover toward their resistance zones.
- NZD/USD0.5749, then 0.5770
- AUD/USD0.7072, then 0.7170
- EUR/USD1.1215, then 1.1280
- GBP/CHF1.1100, then 1.1200
- USD/CAD1.3970, then 1.3860
- USD/CHF0.8201, then 0.8141
NZD/USD | OANDA feed
NZD/USD Analysis: Price Breaks Out of a Falling Channel but Stalls Under Two Longer Averages
0.5692 +0.0010 (+0.18%) at about 05:44 GMT Day range 0.5677–0.5705
Outlook: Bias is neutral to higher while 0.5638 holds. NZD/USD has bounced from its mid-October low near 0.5565, and an 80%-priced RBNZ hike to 3.00% on Wednesday supports the Kiwi, but a firmer dollar before the Fed and softer New Zealand inflation cap gains under 0.5749.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 0.5565
- Support 1
- 0.5638
- Resistance 1
- 0.5749
- Resistance 2
- 0.5770
- Price (0.5692) is above the 0.5638 short average and under the 0.5749 and 0.5770 averages, so the area between them is the next supply zone for any bounce.
- RSI 52.70 is above its signal line at 43.53, a firm reading that is not overbought; a close over 0.5770 opens 0.5800, while a close under 0.5638 puts the 0.5565 October low back in play.
Setup: Long at 0.5640, stop 0.5590, targets 0.5749 and 0.5770. Reward:risk 2.2 / 2.6, medium conviction. A pullback to the short average is the entry. The RBNZ decision (about 01:00 GMT Wednesday) is already largely priced, so a hawkish Fed would hurt this idea; a daily close under 0.5590 cancels it.
AUD/USD | OANDA feed
AUD/USD Analysis: Price Holds Above 0.7000 and Meets the Falling Roof and Two Longer Averages
0.7019 +0.0003 (+0.04%) at about 05:44 GMT Day range 0.7010–0.7034
Outlook: Bias is neutral to lower while 0.7072 caps rallies. The Australian dollar sits near a one-month high on RBA hike bets (about 66% priced for 3 November), but a firm dollar and Wednesday’s Q3 CPI at 00:30 GMT can swing the pair either way.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 0.6905
- Support 1
- 0.6979
- Resistance 1
- 0.7072
- Resistance 2
- 0.7170
- Price (0.7019) is just under the 0.7033 and 0.7072 averages and above the 0.6979 short average; the falling roof and the 0.7072 average form one supply zone.
- RSI 51.10 is above its signal line at 44.45, a neutral-to-firm reading; a close over 0.7072 targets 0.7170, while a close under 0.6979 puts the 0.6905 floor back in play. Speculative short positions are at a record, so a squeeze is possible.
Setup: Short at 0.7070, stop 0.7120, targets 0.6980 and 0.6905. Reward:risk 1.8 / 3.3, low conviction. A rejection at the roof and the 0.7072 average is the cleaner entry; a daily close over 0.7120 cancels the idea because a hot CPI would bring a November RBA hike into play.
EUR/USD | FXCM feed
EUR/USD Analysis: Price Slips Back Inside a Falling Channel Beneath Two Falling Averages
1.1167 −0.0007 (−0.06%) at about 05:44 GMT Day range 1.1163–1.1177
Outlook: Bias is lower while 1.1215 caps rallies. EUR/USD closed Monday at 1.1174, under 1.1200 for the first time since 14 October, as the dollar index firmed near 102.0 before the Fed on Wednesday and the ECB on Thursday.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 1.1000
- Support 1
- 1.1113
- Resistance 1
- 1.1215
- Resistance 2
- 1.1420
- Price (1.1167) is under the 1.1215 short average, which also sits against the channel roof, and well under the 1.1419 and 1.1443 averages.
- RSI 34.03 is near oversold, so chasing shorts is late; a bounce into 1.1215 is the cleaner entry. A close under 1.1113, the 14 October low, opens 1.1000, while a close over 1.1215 would break the channel roof.
Setup: Short at 1.1215, stop 1.1275, targets 1.1113 and 1.1000. Reward:risk 1.7 / 3.6, medium conviction. Selling into the channel roof and short average, with a hawkish Fed and French fiscal headlines as the supports. A 1-hour close over 1.1275 cancels the idea.
GBP/CHF | OANDA feed
GBP/CHF Analysis: Price Holds Above the Floor of a Rising Channel and Its Short Average
1.1037 −0.0006 (−0.05%) at about 05:44 GMT Day range 1.1032–1.1049
Outlook: Bias is neutral to higher while 1.0987 holds. Sterling is near a 16-month high against the euro on Bank of England hike bets, and the UK Budget on 28 October is the pair’s main event risk, while safe-haven demand can lift the franc.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 1.0903
- Support 1
- 1.0987
- Resistance 1
- 1.1100
- Resistance 2
- 1.1200
- Price (1.1037) is above the 1.1014 short average and the 1.0987 and 1.0903 averages, and the 1.1014–1.0987 area sits on the channel floor.
- RSI 54.64 is above its signal line at 52.70, a neutral-to-firm reading; a close over 1.1100 targets 1.1200, while a close under 1.0987 breaks the floor and opens 1.0903.
Setup: Long at 1.1015, stop 1.0955, targets 1.1100 and 1.1200. Reward:risk 1.4 / 3.1, medium conviction. A dip to the short average and channel floor is the entry. A weak UK Budget reaction or risk-off franc buying is the risk; a close under 1.0955 breaks the channel and cancels the idea.
USD/CAD | OANDA feed
USD/CAD Analysis: Price Pins to Two Averages After a Seven-Day Slide From the Channel Roof
1.4018 +0.0006 (+0.04%) at about 05:44 GMT Day range 1.4009–1.4024
Outlook: Bias is neutral to lower while 1.4046 caps rallies. USD/CAD rebounded on Monday after falling to 1.3969, its lowest since 16 September, and trades near 1.4020 as the dollar firms and oil eases, while a Bank of Canada hike to 2.50% on Wednesday supports the loonie.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 1.3860
- Support 1
- 1.3970
- Resistance 1
- 1.4046
- Resistance 2
- 1.4162
- Price (1.4018) sits on the 1.4018 average and just under the 1.4046 average, with the falling 1.4162 short average above.
- RSI 39.52 is under its signal line at 51.45, a soft reading; a close under 1.3970 opens 1.3860, while a close over 1.4162 would end the slide and aim at 1.4298.
Setup: Short at 1.4050, stop 1.4110, targets 1.3970 and 1.3860. Reward:risk 1.3 / 3.2, medium conviction. Selling a bounce into the 1.4046 average. A hawkish Fed would lift the pair, so a 1-hour close over 1.4110 cancels the idea.
USD/CHF | FXCM feed
USD/CHF Analysis: Price Bounces From the Floor of a Rising Channel and Tests the Short Average
0.8279 +0.0003 (+0.04%) at about 05:44 GMT Day range 0.8259–0.8284
Outlook: Bias is neutral to higher while 0.8201 holds. USD/CHF has gained for two sessions to about 0.8280 as the dollar firms before the Fed, while safe-haven flows (Swiss 10-year yield near 0.47%) limit the upside.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 0.8141
- Support 1
- 0.8201
- Resistance 1
- 0.8290
- Resistance 2
- 0.8390
- Price (0.8279) is just under the 0.8290 short average and above the 0.8201 and 0.8141 averages, which sit on the channel floor.
- RSI 52.95 is under its signal line at 53.57, a neutral reading; a close over 0.8290 targets the 0.8390 October high, while a close under 0.8201 breaks the floor and opens 0.8141.
Setup: Long at 0.8205, stop 0.8145, targets 0.8290 and 0.8390. Reward:risk 1.4 / 3.1, medium conviction. A pullback to the channel floor is the entry. The wide US-Swiss rate gap favors the dollar; a close under 0.8145 breaks the channel and cancels the idea.
Conclusion
EUR/USD and USD/CAD trade under falling averages or channel roofs, so we prefer selling bounces into 1.1215 and 1.4050, while AUD/USD is a lower-conviction fade of the 0.7070 supply zone. NZD/USD, GBP/CHF and USD/CHF are the three dip-buying ideas, on the 0.5640 short average, the 1.1015 channel floor and the 0.8205 channel floor. The nearest risks are Australian CPI at 00:30 GMT, the RBNZ near 01:00 GMT, the Bank of Canada at 13:45 GMT and the Fed at 18:00 GMT on Wednesday, then US GDP and PCE at 12:30 GMT and the ECB at 13:15 GMT on Thursday. A daily close over 1.1275 in EUR/USD or under 1.3970 in USD/CAD would change the picture.
Trade NZD/USD, AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/CHF, USD/CAD and USD/CHF with Capital Street FX.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will the RBNZ hike on 28 October, and what does it mean for NZD/USD?
Swaps price about an 80% chance of a 25 basis point hike to 3.00%, and TD Securities expects three hikes. Much of that is priced, so a hawkish Fed could still push NZD/USD under 0.5638, while a dovish Fed would send it toward 0.5749.
Will the Bank of Canada hike on Wednesday, and what does it mean for USD/CAD?
A 25 basis point hike to 2.50% is expected at 13:45 GMT. A hike with firm projections could push USD/CAD under 1.3970 toward 1.3860, while a hold could send it back to 1.4046.
Where is support for EUR/USD?
The 14 October low of 1.1113 is the first floor, with 1.1000 below it. Resistance is the 1.1215 short average and channel roof, then the 1.1419 average.
How could the 28 October Fed meeting affect these pairs?
A hold is expected at 18:00 GMT. A hawkish message confirming a December hike would lift yields and the dollar, pushing EUR/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD to their lower supports. A cautious tone would do the opposite.
